Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Debt is high, interest claims a growing share, and the deficits are running in what is nominally a non-recession environment. The complication this year is that the environment stopped being clearly non-recessionary. Growth in the final quarter of last year came in near half a percent, dragged down by a six-week … Continue reading Is the current combination of fiscal policy, monetary conditions, and debt levels sustainable through the next economic downturn?
Economy
With the emergency tariffs struck down in February and replaced under a narrower authority that expires by its own terms, does trade policy now have to go through Congress?
Novi, MI Correspondent — Yes, and the industry has been saying so since 2025 for reasons that had nothing to do with who was president. You cannot make a capital decision against a tariff that a court can vacate. That was the argument, it was correct, and February proved it in the most expensive possible … Continue reading With the emergency tariffs struck down in February and replaced under a narrower authority that expires by its own terms, does trade policy now have to go through Congress?
Is the current trajectory of federal debt and interest costs compatible with sustained economic growth and long-term geopolitical leadership?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Rising interest costs reduce fiscal space for investment, defence, and future emergencies. Net interest passed a trillion dollars this year and exceeds defence spending. That's not a projection anymore. Sustained growth is still possible. The trajectory makes it harder and raises the odds of an eventual adjustment that itself slows growth. … Continue reading Is the current trajectory of federal debt and interest costs compatible with sustained economic growth and long-term geopolitical leadership?
Is a mid-year fight over the Federal Reserve’s independence a necessary assertion of elected control, or a risk to the only remaining adult in the rate room?
Myrtle Beach, SC Correspondent — The Fed isn't a priesthood and it isn't a campaign desk. Elected control already exists in the statute — a mandate Congress wrote, governors the Senate confirms, a chair who can be embarrassed in a hearing. Using those tools is adult. Turning the mid-year rate path into a loyalty test … Continue reading Is a mid-year fight over the Federal Reserve’s independence a necessary assertion of elected control, or a risk to the only remaining adult in the rate room?
Have mid-year tariff actions produced more reshoring and bargaining leverage than they have raised input costs for builders, farms, and retailers?
Gastonia, NC Correspondent — A tariff is a price and a letter. At mid-year we have more of the letter than we have of a finished plant. That isn't a reason to call the letter a failure. It's a reason not to call it a factory. Input costs are real. Builders are paying them in … Continue reading Have mid-year tariff actions produced more reshoring and bargaining leverage than they have raised input costs for builders, farms, and retailers?
Will the combination of elevated interest rates and high government debt eventually force a fiscal adjustment that neither party appears prepared to make?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Higher rates raise the cost of servicing the stock and high deficits keep adding to it. The number that ended the abstraction this year is that net interest exceeded defense spending. That's not a projection. It's the ledger, and it happened while both parties campaigned on programs that assume it away. … Continue reading Will the combination of elevated interest rates and high government debt eventually force a fiscal adjustment that neither party appears prepared to make?
Briefly, what are the three or four most consequential issues the winner must confront in the first year, and which candidate is better equipped to address them?
Clermont, Florida Correspondent — Restore operational control at the border and fix the asylum mismatch. Address cost-of-living pressure through energy production, housing supply, and spending discipline. Rebuild deterrence in the Middle East and hold a competitive stance toward China without new open-ended wars. Signal fiscal seriousness on the debt path. Trump's record and stated priorities … Continue reading Briefly, what are the three or four most consequential issues the winner must confront in the first year, and which candidate is better equipped to address them?
Inflation and the cost of living have remained central concerns even as official rates have moderated. How should voters evaluate the candidates’ records and plans on prices, wages, housing costs, and federal spending?
Owatonna, Minnesota Correspondent — Voters should look at the full path of prices since 2021, real wages, housing costs, and the fiscal stance that accompanied the surge. Trump's record before the pandemic and his emphasis on energy production and spending restraint give him the stronger position on durable relief. The alternative continues to lean toward … Continue reading Inflation and the cost of living have remained central concerns even as official rates have moderated. How should voters evaluate the candidates’ records and plans on prices, wages, housing costs, and federal spending?
Is the increasing use of secondary sanctions and financial exclusion as foreign-policy tools creating long-term risks to the dollar’s reserve status?
Sydney, Australia Correspondent — These tools are powerful because the dollar and the clearing system are central, and overuse teaches targets and neutrals to build alternatives. What happened this year is a genuine escalation. Freezing a major central bank's reserves is a different order of action from sanctioning individuals, and every reserve manager in the … Continue reading Is the increasing use of secondary sanctions and financial exclusion as foreign-policy tools creating long-term risks to the dollar’s reserve status?
Do gasoline prices at midsummer levels require a temporary federal tax holiday and drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or would those steps worsen the longer shortage?
Myrtle Beach, SC Correspondent — A holiday on a federal tax of eighteen cents against a five-dollar sticker is a rounding error with a ribbon. A reserve drawdown is a one-time sale from a tank built for a blockade, not for a midsummer poll. Neither drills a hole or finishes a pipe. Midsummer prices hurt … Continue reading Do gasoline prices at midsummer levels require a temporary federal tax holiday and drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or would those steps worsen the longer shortage?
