Wheeling, WV Correspondent — No, and the result makes that clearer than a different result would have. A narrow House majority for one party and a Senate that moved the other way is the definition of an outcome that settles nothing. Nothing structural passes for two years, which by default leaves questions where they currently … Continue reading Did the midterm elections produce a durable shift in the balance between federal and state authority on major social questions?
Symposium Q&A 2022
Thinking Outside the Boxe — 2022 Annual Summit, December 31, 2022 in Orlando, Florida. Each correspondent is allotted up to five minutes. Only initial comments are recorded; subsequent discussion is not part of the record.
Is the increasing use of secondary sanctions and financial exclusion as foreign-policy tools creating long-term risks to the dollar’s reserve status?
Sydney, Australia Correspondent — These tools are powerful because the dollar and the clearing system are central, and overuse teaches targets and neutrals to build alternatives. What happened this year is a genuine escalation. Freezing a major central bank's reserves is a different order of action from sanctioning individuals, and every reserve manager in the … Continue reading Is the increasing use of secondary sanctions and financial exclusion as foreign-policy tools creating long-term risks to the dollar’s reserve status?
How should policymakers respond to the rise in urban retail crime and its effects on business viability and public safety?
Clermont, Florida Correspondent — Theft and disorder have reached a level in some cities that produces closures, higher prices, and reduced hours, and that harms the residents who depend on those stores most. The response is prosecution of organized theft, consistent consequences for repeat offenders, and visible policing of commercial districts. I'd distinguish two things … Continue reading How should policymakers respond to the rise in urban retail crime and its effects on business viability and public safety?
Should large technology companies face stricter antitrust scrutiny for their control of digital advertising and information distribution?
Orange County, California Correspondent — The advertising market is where the strongest case sits and it's the one least understood publicly. The structure is that one firm operates the buying platform, the selling platform, and the exchange where they meet, and takes a cut at each stage. In any other market that arrangement would be … Continue reading Should large technology companies face stricter antitrust scrutiny for their control of digital advertising and information distribution?
Has the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion returned the issue to democratic politics at the state level in a sustainable way, or intensified national polarization?
Prescott Valley, AZ Correspondent — We now have evidence rather than a prediction, which is the difference between answering this in July and answering it in December. Six states put the question directly to voters this year. Kansas in August, then five more in November. In every case the outcome favored the less restrictive position, … Continue reading Has the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion returned the issue to democratic politics at the state level in a sustainable way, or intensified national polarization?
Is the rapid rise of “buy now, pay later” consumer credit creating a new form of household financial vulnerability?
Clermont, Florida Correspondent — These products spread small-dollar credit quickly with less underwriting visibility than a traditional loan. For some households they're a cash-flow tool. For others they become stacked obligations that are hard to track, and the stacking is the problem rather than any individual purchase. The consumer bureau published a study in September … Continue reading Is the rapid rise of “buy now, pay later” consumer credit creating a new form of household financial vulnerability?
Should central banks accept higher unemployment as the necessary cost of restoring price stability, and will this tightening cycle avoid a significant recession?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Yes to the first and probably not to the second, and I'd separate them because they're being conflated. Accepting some rise in unemployment is the price of not having entrenched inflation, and central banks that refuse it usually end up with both. On the recession question, the historical record is discouraging. … Continue reading Should central banks accept higher unemployment as the necessary cost of restoring price stability, and will this tightening cycle avoid a significant recession?
Will the war in Ukraine produce a lasting realignment of European defense spending and strategic dependence on the United States?
Sydney, Australia Correspondent — The budgets moved and the question is whether they survive a mild winter and an election cycle. Germany announced a hundred billion in February and has committed a fraction of it. Their 2022 defense spending came in below two percent despite the announcement, and the first large order — aircraft — … Continue reading Will the war in Ukraine produce a lasting realignment of European defense spending and strategic dependence on the United States?
How should Western nations balance energy security with climate objectives after the disruption of Russian supplies, and should the United States expand domestic production more aggressively?
Clermont, Florida Correspondent — Security had to take priority this winter and Europe proved it can be done at a cost. They filled storage to nearly full by autumn, bought liquefied gas at prices that would have been unthinkable two years ago, and got a mild December. That's a reprieve rather than a solution, because … Continue reading How should Western nations balance energy security with climate objectives after the disruption of Russian supplies, and should the United States expand domestic production more aggressively?
Is the current rate of inflation primarily the result of supply shocks, excess demand from fiscal and monetary stimulus, or a combination that requires different policy responses?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — A combination, and the useful thing about answering in December rather than in June is that the shape has become visible. Goods inflation has come down sharply. Used cars are falling, freight rates have collapsed back toward pre-pandemic levels, and the supply side is healing on its own. Services inflation has … Continue reading Is the current rate of inflation primarily the result of supply shocks, excess demand from fiscal and monetary stimulus, or a combination that requires different policy responses?
