Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Debt is high, interest claims a growing share, and the deficits are running in what is nominally a non-recession environment. The complication this year is that the environment stopped being clearly non-recessionary. Growth in the final quarter of last year came in near half a percent, dragged down by a six-week … Continue reading Is the current combination of fiscal policy, monetary conditions, and debt levels sustainable through the next economic downturn?
Economics
Is the current trajectory of federal debt and interest costs compatible with sustained economic growth and long-term geopolitical leadership?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Rising interest costs reduce fiscal space for investment, defence, and future emergencies. Net interest passed a trillion dollars this year and exceeds defence spending. That's not a projection anymore. Sustained growth is still possible. The trajectory makes it harder and raises the odds of an eventual adjustment that itself slows growth. … Continue reading Is the current trajectory of federal debt and interest costs compatible with sustained economic growth and long-term geopolitical leadership?
Do cuts and pauses in foreign-aid and humanitarian vehicles prove that a lot of spending had no domestic constituency — or that efficiency campaigns always start with the least-lobbied accounts rather than the largest ones?
Myrtle Beach, SC Both halves are partly right and the arithmetic settles which one matters more, so let me do the arithmetic. Total US foreign assistance runs somewhere under seventy billion dollars a year. USAID's share was around forty billion. Federal outlays are roughly six and three-quarter trillion. So the entire foreign aid budget is … Continue reading Do cuts and pauses in foreign-aid and humanitarian vehicles prove that a lot of spending had no domestic constituency — or that efficiency campaigns always start with the least-lobbied accounts rather than the largest ones?
Will the combination of elevated interest rates and high government debt eventually force a fiscal adjustment that neither party appears prepared to make?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Higher rates raise the cost of servicing the stock and high deficits keep adding to it. The number that ended the abstraction this year is that net interest exceeded defense spending. That's not a projection. It's the ledger, and it happened while both parties campaigned on programs that assume it away. … Continue reading Will the combination of elevated interest rates and high government debt eventually force a fiscal adjustment that neither party appears prepared to make?
Inflation and the cost of living have remained central concerns even as official rates have moderated. How should voters evaluate the candidates’ records and plans on prices, wages, housing costs, and federal spending?
Owatonna, Minnesota Correspondent — Voters should look at the full path of prices since 2021, real wages, housing costs, and the fiscal stance that accompanied the surge. Trump's record before the pandemic and his emphasis on energy production and spending restraint give him the stronger position on durable relief. The alternative continues to lean toward … Continue reading Inflation and the cost of living have remained central concerns even as official rates have moderated. How should voters evaluate the candidates’ records and plans on prices, wages, housing costs, and federal spending?
Is the current level of federal spending on pandemic relief and infrastructure likely to produce sustained inflation, or will it prove temporary?
Owatonna, Minnesota Correspondent — The question has largely been answered since it was drafted, which is worth saying plainly. The Chairman retired the word transitory at the end of November. The November print came in at six point eight percent, the highest in forty years. The Fed accelerated the taper in December and signaled three … Continue reading Is the current level of federal spending on pandemic relief and infrastructure likely to produce sustained inflation, or will it prove temporary?
The economy remains under severe pandemic pressure, with high unemployment in some sectors and large federal interventions. What are the most important differences in the candidates’ plans for recovery, jobs, and the long-term fiscal consequences of continued stimulus?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — The core differences are the speed of reopening, the scale of further support, and how seriously each treats the long-term debt path, which is to say not very seriously in either case. Trump's pressure to reopen and his pre-pandemic labor market give him the stronger claim on recovery and jobs. Biden's … Continue reading The economy remains under severe pandemic pressure, with high unemployment in some sectors and large federal interventions. What are the most important differences in the candidates’ plans for recovery, jobs, and the long-term fiscal consequences of continued stimulus?
Donald Trump has proposed a tariff on goods imported from China. Would this ultimately hurt or help the American economy?
Myrtle Beach, SC, Orlando, FL January 22, 2016 Owatonna, MN Correspondent-On the surface, the United States government imposing a tariff on a country that doesn't play fair when it comes to trade, like China, sounds like a good thing to do. We stand up to a cheater, exert our sovereign rights, and possibly add tax … Continue reading Donald Trump has proposed a tariff on goods imported from China. Would this ultimately hurt or help the American economy?
