How can cities reverse the post-pandemic decline in urban commercial activity without simply increasing public subsidies?

Orange County, California Correspondent — Subsidies mask decline and rarely reverse it.

The number to start from is that office attendance across major markets is running around forty percent of pre-pandemic, and it’s been stuck there since autumn. Omicron has pushed the return dates out again.

Make the district functional — safety, transit that runs, streets that are clean — and change the land-use rules so an under-occupied building can become something else.

Conversion is the lever and it’s harder than people think. Floor plates on buildings from the seventies and eighties don’t convert to residential easily, because the distance from window to core is wrong. The ones that convert well are older and smaller, and there aren’t many of them.

Clermont, Florida Correspondent — Activity follows safety, access, and a viable use for the space.

Downtowns lost the daily office worker and haven’t replaced them with enough residents or visitors to sustain the retail that was sized for the old traffic.

The durable responses are practical: restore basic order, speed the conversion of surplus office, and reduce the friction that keeps a new business from opening. My clients tell me the permitting is the binding constraint, not the rent.

Heavy subsidy props up individual properties for a while and doesn’t restore the ecosystem.

Novi, Michigan Correspondent — Safety, usable space, and faster reuse beat another subsidy layer.

Detroit is the instructive case because it went through this before anyone else and the recovery that worked wasn’t subsidized office. It was residential conversion, a few anchor employers, and a decade.

The lesson is that a downtown recovers by becoming somewhere people live rather than by recapturing the commuters. That’s a twenty-year project and cities want a two-year one.

Bismarck, ND Correspondent — Our downtown never depended on a tower, so the small-city version is different and worth stating.

What killed retail here was the internet, not the pandemic, and the pandemic finished a few businesses that were already marginal.

What’s brought people back is residential over retail on the main street and a handful of restaurants. That’s it. No subsidy program did it — a zoning change did, and it took eight years to work.

Las Vegas, Nevada Correspondent — Give the building a legal path to become something else. Housing, laboratory space, smaller suites.

Cut the process that makes a conversion a three-year exercise. Safety that’s real. Transit that serves the worker who still comes in.

Don’t pour a permanent tax abatement into a tower with no tenant, because that becomes furniture and furniture hides the repricing. The repricing is the medicine.

Cities that allow the medicine keep a core. Cities that subsidies 2019 occupancy get a fiscal habit and a skyline that photographs better than it books.

Long Island, New York Correspondent — The core that waits for a subsidy is the core that didn’t believe its tenants.

I’d raise the fiscal mechanics because they’re the constraint nobody prices. A commercial building reassessed downward shifts its burden onto residential, and a city that converts office to housing loses commercial rate revenue and gains a resident who costs money in services.

So the conversion everyone recommends makes the municipal budget worse in the short run, which is why cities resist it while saying they support it.

Somebody has to solve that or the recommendation goes nowhere.

Cheyenne, Wyoming Correspondent — If the floor is empty, let it be a different floor.

Don’t tax the people who are still working to maintain the appearance of the ones who aren’t.

Code first, then market. Subsidy last, if at all.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Correspondent — Our version isn’t office, it’s seasonal, and the answer turned out to be residents.

The businesses that survived here were the ones with a local customer base rather than a tourist one, and the ones that died were the ones that only made money for fourteen weeks.

If a downtown wants to survive a shock it needs people who live there, and that’s a housing policy rather than a commercial one. Cities keep trying to solve this with retail incentives when the missing input is a resident.

Dayton, Ohio Correspondent — Ours emptied before the pandemic and I’d offer the industrial parallel.

When a plant closes, the useful response is not to subsidize the plant. It’s to make the site cleanable, dividable, and permittable so somebody can do something else with it.

Buildings are the same. A vacant tower is a site with a legal problem, and the legal problem is that the code says office and nobody wants office.

Fix the code and the market will find a use or it won’t, and either way you’ll have learned something for the price of a zoning hearing.

Jacksonville, Florida Correspondent — We consolidated the city and county and then built outward for fifty years, so our downtown has been a problem since long before this.

What I’d say is that a downtown needs a reason to exist that isn’t employment. Ours is starting to be the river.

The port doesn’t care about the office district and the office district doesn’t generate what the city runs on. That’s uncomfortable and it’s also true of a lot of mid-size cities that have been pretending the skyline is the economy.

Gastonia, North Carolina Correspondent — I’d raise the small-city version, since Charlotte gets the attention and my end of the county has the actual problem.

A mill town downtown emptied decades ago and what’s brought some of them back is nothing sophisticated. A brewery, a couple of restaurants, and apartments in a building nobody wanted.

That happens when a city allows it and doesn’t happen when a city requires parking minimums that make it impossible. The obstacle was almost always the code.

Knoxville, Tennessee Correspondent — A downtown needs a reason and the reasons are residents, an open courthouse, and a campus in the room.

Permit the reason. Don’t pay people to maintain the fiction that the reason is still office density.

The public-works angle is that conversions are hard on infrastructure in ways nobody budgets. Residential uses water and sewer differently than office does, at different hours, and a district built for daytime occupancy needs work underneath before it can be a neighborhood.

That’s a real capital cost and it’s the honest version of what conversion requires.