Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Debt is high, interest claims a growing share, and the deficits are running in what is nominally a non-recession environment. The complication this year is that the environment stopped being clearly non-recessionary. Growth in the final quarter of last year came in near half a percent, dragged down by a six-week … Continue reading Is the current combination of fiscal policy, monetary conditions, and debt levels sustainable through the next economic downturn?
finance
Did the government efficiency effort identify genuine waste and fraud in federal programs, and what has it established that a future administration cannot ignore?
Gastonia, NC Correspondent — It established something that badly needed establishing, which is that nobody in Washington could tell you where the money went. Not that it was stolen. That nobody could produce a list. The government's own auditors put improper payments at something like a hundred and sixty billion a year, and cumulatively somewhere … Continue reading Did the government efficiency effort identify genuine waste and fraud in federal programs, and what has it established that a future administration cannot ignore?
Is the concentration of advanced AI capabilities among a small number of firms creating new forms of systemic economic and political risk?
Dayton, OH Correspondent — Training frontier models requires capital, data, and compute that few organisations command. That creates economic risk if critical capability sits with a handful of private entities, and political risk if they become gatekeepers. The capital scale is the new fact this year. The committed spending on data centres and related infrastructure … Continue reading Is the concentration of advanced AI capabilities among a small number of firms creating new forms of systemic economic and political risk?
Is the current trajectory of federal debt and interest costs compatible with sustained economic growth and long-term geopolitical leadership?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Rising interest costs reduce fiscal space for investment, defence, and future emergencies. Net interest passed a trillion dollars this year and exceeds defence spending. That's not a projection anymore. Sustained growth is still possible. The trajectory makes it harder and raises the odds of an eventual adjustment that itself slows growth. … Continue reading Is the current trajectory of federal debt and interest costs compatible with sustained economic growth and long-term geopolitical leadership?
Is a mid-year fight over the Federal Reserve’s independence a necessary assertion of elected control, or a risk to the only remaining adult in the rate room?
Myrtle Beach, SC Correspondent — The Fed isn't a priesthood and it isn't a campaign desk. Elected control already exists in the statute — a mandate Congress wrote, governors the Senate confirms, a chair who can be embarrassed in a hearing. Using those tools is adult. Turning the mid-year rate path into a loyalty test … Continue reading Is a mid-year fight over the Federal Reserve’s independence a necessary assertion of elected control, or a risk to the only remaining adult in the rate room?
The tax and reconciliation bill was signed today. Did Congress write a durable code, or a stack of expiring provisions that will be relitigated in 2027?
Gastonia, NC Correspondent — We can stop arguing about how it should be written. It was signed this morning, and the answer is both. The core is permanent. The rates and brackets don't expire, and full expensing was made permanent. Those are real and they're what a lender models. Everything the campaign was actually about … Continue reading The tax and reconciliation bill was signed today. Did Congress write a durable code, or a stack of expiring provisions that will be relitigated in 2027?
Will the combination of elevated interest rates and high government debt eventually force a fiscal adjustment that neither party appears prepared to make?
Owatonna, MN Correspondent — Higher rates raise the cost of servicing the stock and high deficits keep adding to it. The number that ended the abstraction this year is that net interest exceeded defense spending. That's not a projection. It's the ledger, and it happened while both parties campaigned on programs that assume it away. … Continue reading Will the combination of elevated interest rates and high government debt eventually force a fiscal adjustment that neither party appears prepared to make?
Briefly, what are the three or four most consequential issues the winner must confront in the first year, and which candidate is better equipped to address them?
Clermont, Florida Correspondent — Restore operational control at the border and fix the asylum mismatch. Address cost-of-living pressure through energy production, housing supply, and spending discipline. Rebuild deterrence in the Middle East and hold a competitive stance toward China without new open-ended wars. Signal fiscal seriousness on the debt path. Trump's record and stated priorities … Continue reading Briefly, what are the three or four most consequential issues the winner must confront in the first year, and which candidate is better equipped to address them?
Inflation and the cost of living have remained central concerns even as official rates have moderated. How should voters evaluate the candidates’ records and plans on prices, wages, housing costs, and federal spending?
Owatonna, Minnesota Correspondent — Voters should look at the full path of prices since 2021, real wages, housing costs, and the fiscal stance that accompanied the surge. Trump's record before the pandemic and his emphasis on energy production and spending restraint give him the stronger position on durable relief. The alternative continues to lean toward … Continue reading Inflation and the cost of living have remained central concerns even as official rates have moderated. How should voters evaluate the candidates’ records and plans on prices, wages, housing costs, and federal spending?
Is the increasing use of secondary sanctions and financial exclusion as foreign-policy tools creating long-term risks to the dollar’s reserve status?
Sydney, Australia Correspondent — These tools are powerful because the dollar and the clearing system are central, and overuse teaches targets and neutrals to build alternatives. What happened this year is a genuine escalation. Freezing a major central bank's reserves is a different order of action from sanctioning individuals, and every reserve manager in the … Continue reading Is the increasing use of secondary sanctions and financial exclusion as foreign-policy tools creating long-term risks to the dollar’s reserve status?
